Random attacks

You received a letter on an arrow from Seerdon (#YYYY).

Random

...or is it?

I ask you, is this attack purely random? Is it even possible, in this game, that you make a completely random attack on someone else's kingdom? After all, the word "random" defines itself that each possible outcome has an equal probability of being successful. In TR terms, this means that every mage within my attack range would be equally likely of being attacked by me.

However, is this what happened? Did I simply punch in a random number in the War screen and attack the first mage who was not dead, too weak, or too powerful? Did I open the 80%-125% attack range screen, close my eyes and randomly click on a mage and attacked him or her? Are you just that unlucky to be the target of my attack?

I believe the obvious answer to these questions is "No." I did none of the aforementioned things, such as randomly clicking on a mage, or randomly typing in a number. Therefore, through use of logic, this attack must have been quite deliberate, correct? I did choose to attack you, after all, did I not?

Is a perfectly random attack even possible in TR? As I mentioned before, I did choose to attack you instead of someone else. Why you? The answer is simple: I believe the odds of successfully attacking you are in my favour. This belief could be spawned from several things. Perhaps I believe my magic specialization has a certain edge over yours. Maybe I believe my particular stacking could be very damaging to units your specialization typically uses. It is also possible that you have much more land than the people around you, meaning, perhaps, that your army is smaller than the other mages in the vicinity.

If these attacks were perfectly random, everyone would be also attacking mages much more powerful than they are, not just the weaker ones. Terms such as "fat" or "thin" mages would simply cease to exist were every attack perfectly random. Even the notion of colour advantage would disappear. So, why am I not attacking the powerful mages? As mentioned before, I believe my chances of success are greater if I attack weaker mages. After all, would it not be suicide if I attack more powerful mages? Would you dare to attack much more powerful mages? Of course not! Attacking weaker mages is what is known as "the path of least resistance," which will eventually lead to overall success.

But success is such a broad and engrossing term, is it not? How can one define success in TR? Is the mage with the most land the most successful? Not necessarily, since this hypothetical mage could have a very weak army, and his land will easily be destroyed and taken. Is it the mage with the largest army? Again, it is not. Such a large army could be extremely inefficient and very taxing on mage's limited resources. Is it the mage who uses his turns and resources the most efficiently? Once again, this is not necessarily success. He could be efficient, but his stacking could be downright horrible and ineffective. Is it the mage with the best stacking? This is simply impossible, for no stack can be perfect. It can be very offensive, in which case it could be utterly destroyed during defensive battles. A stack can also be every defensive, in which case you might have trouble inflicting sufficient damage during offensive battles. Mixed stacks have the problem of being somewhat successful during all types of attack, but it can be equally unsuccessful, due to the fact that it does not specialize in offense, nor in defense. Is the mage with the highest rank? Not necessarily, for this mage could be using a gimmick stack and knows nothing about proper stacking or choosing appropriate targets.

Success is whatever you wish it to be. If killing the most mages possible is your definition of success, then so be it. You will spend your reset killing any mage who happens to cross your path. Maybe you want the most unique items and heroes possible, in which case you will proceed to whore and geld as much as possible. If ranking takes your fancy, then you will probably join a powerful guild who has similar goals. Maybe you simply wish to be a better mage than you were last time, in which case you will try to learn from your mistakes and the mistakes of others, hoping to gain more and lose less than last reset.

With all of this, I hope I have proven that a perfectly random attack is incredibly unlikely, maybe even impossible, in TR. It is quite obvious that I chose to attack you.

But why would I do such a thing as deliberately attack you? I am certain you share the same amount of love for your kingdom as I do mine, and I am sure it has taken a lot of blood, sweat and tears to achieve what it is you now have. You are most certainly proud of your progress thus far, and you have every right to be. Not every mage can achieve what you have.

Now I return to my question. Why would I deliberately take away and destroy a part of this wonderful kingdom which you have built and for which you care and love? Such an attack will certainly be hurtful to you, as it would me.

Am I voluntarily attacking you because I have some form of vendetta or personal agenda against you? Of course not! You have done nothing to spawn such feelings of anger or hate within me. It is also very likely that we have never crossed paths before now, so how can there be negative feelings between us? Does your vision for success directly oppose mine, therefore I feel the need to stop you? Again, not at all. I have no clue what you wish to achieve in this game, so how is it even possible for me to think that you are against me?

Now I return to the first word in this message: "Random." Using the definition relating to statistical probability is obviously incorrect, as I clearly stated in this message. However, the word is appropriate. As I stated, there are currently no negative feelings between us, nor are we mortal enemies. However, like every other mage, I desire to be successful, and to do so, I must perform attacks with the hope of gaining land and being one step closer to achieving my vision of success. I chose to attack you, but I do not want to create any hostile feelings between us, since it is unnecessary and I am certain that neither of us wishes for a war to erupt.

If I were to summarize, I would say that this attack is intentional, but not because of some preconceived hatred or anger. This attack was, unfortunately, necessary for me to become more successful, and I hope that it does not create hostilities between us. However, this attack is out of your control and could not have been predicted. And something that is unpredictable and uncontrollable is defined as... Random.